Inflation Ticks Up in July, Driven by Spending on Services_我的网站
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Inflation showed its sticky nature in July, rising slightly as increases in services costs offset a decline in the price of goods, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday.
The personal consumption expenditures price index, a metric closely followed by the Federal Reserve, rose 0.2% for the month and 3.3% for the 12-month period. That was in line with estimates.
The core index, stripping out energy and food costs, rose 0.2% and 4.2%, respectively. Last month, the annual rate of increase was 3% and 4.1%.
Other data in the release showed spending and income up.
“Condition of the American consumer remains rock solid,” RSM US LLP Principal & Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas posted on X, formerly Twitter. He noted that spending was up 0.8%, inflation-adjusted spending was up 0.6% and 2.8% on a three-month annualized pace – placing some risk on the company’s 2.1% forecast for gross domestic product growth in the third quarter. He also pointed out that income was up 0.2%, while wages, salaries and compensation were up 0.4%.”
While the PCE number is perhaps higher than the Fed would like, Chairman Jerome Powell said in his recent speech at the central bank’s summer symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, noted that “on a 12-month basis, core PCE inflation peaked at 5.4 percent in February 2022 and declined gradually to 4.3 percent in July.”
But he also cautioned that the path to the Fed’s 2% annual inflation target will require that interest rates remain high for some time to come.
“Turning to the outlook, although further unwinding of pandemic-related distortions should continue to put some downward pressure on inflation, restrictive monetary policy will likely play an increasingly important role,” Powell said. “Getting inflation sustainably back down to 2 percent is expected to require a period of below-trend economic growth as well as some softening in labor market conditions.”
Markets seem unfazed by the messaging. In recent days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been on an upward run and is positioned to open up 150 points at the opening.
“Headlines touting a soft landing are increasing, the consensus seems to be that a soft landing is the most likely scenario, this seems like a unicorn scenario, but mixed economic data makes predicting a recession difficult,” said Shana Orczyk Sissel, CEO and founder of Banrion Capital Management. “We see clear signs of broad economic weakness, but inflation is falling, employment is strong, and the consumer is spending, so it's hard to really see a recession occurring this year.”
Many economists have pointed out that getting inflation down to the 3% range from the 9% of last summer, while an accomplishment, will prove easier than wringing the last 1% out.
“While signs point to a continued slowdown in inflation over time, certain categories give us pause as we close out 2023 and head into 2024,” said Joe Davis, chief global economist at Vanguard. “The decline in house prices appears to have abated, which means that the contribution from shelter to core inflation next year may stabilize if not increase. Upside inflation risk is also present in healthcare services where insurance prices are expected to rise this October along with a continued upward pressure on labor demand in the sector, thus suggesting higher wage costs.”
“Our baseline trajectory anticipates a gradual decline in the pace of inflation with core PCE staying well above 3% through YE 2023 and remaining slightly above 2% by YE 2024,” Davis added.
B | 一个实验室提出了一种新路径，不需要往里面添加大量的合金元素也能造出高性能的钢铁。这台透射电镜能把样本放大到上百万倍。研究人员盯着的正是这些原子的“队形”。
C | 钢之所以硬和韧，秘密都藏在这里。哪怕只是挪动几个原子的位置，钢的性能都可能大不一样。
D | 总台央视记者 宋文瑾：在钢的原子世界里，理想状态下原子的排列应该是规整的，但是在热加工过程中可能会出现碳化物。碳化物虽然会让钢的耐磨性提升，但是也会让钢变脆，还会因为受力产生片状的结构，叫孪晶，它属于钢的一种缺陷。但是现在科研人员通过提升工艺可以定制这些缺陷，比如让孪晶把碳化物包裹起来，相当于给它穿上了一层防护铠甲，让钢变得既耐磨又有韧性。把原本的缺陷变成了提升钢铁性能的帮手，这个叫作力学冶金技术，科研人员把这个称为化瑕为玉。这样的微观变化究竟是怎么实现的呢？热模拟实验机像一位“原子级的指挥官”，能精准控制温度、压力、反应时间等因素来调节原子排布。研究人员会通过智能分析模型找出最理想的“排兵布阵”方案。
E | 力学冶金技术造出的钢铁，它的性能究竟如何？还得靠实验数据说话。燕赵钢铁实验室执行主任 杨志南：常规处理后材料很快就断裂了，而3GPa的钢铁材料它承受了很长的拉伸应变，断裂应变达到了将近11%，抗拉强度达到了3050兆帕。比如，一个1平方厘米面积大小的钢片能够承受住30吨的重物。过去想要让钢又强又韧，得往钢里添加总量超过30%合金，算下来一吨的成本往往要几万元起步，而力学冶金技术通过精准调控微观缺陷，把合金元素的总用量压到约5%。燕赵钢铁实验室执行主任 杨志南：我们通过中试平台把实验室里的技术放大，在放大过程中还会出现一系列的问题，在这里把问题解决掉，最终能够为技术走到实际产线中奠定基础。截至目前，燕赵钢铁实验室已经有40多项绿色化、智能化、高端化的科研成果走出实验室，在河钢、首钢、敬业、冀南等钢铁企业落地应用，一块块“实验室里的钢”正逐渐变成生产线上的钢、大国重器里的钢。
F | 好钢用在刀刃上从大海深处到雪域高原，那些最吃劲的工程正是高性能钢真正的试金石。
G | 接下来跟随记者走出实验室，看力学冶金技术如何在工程现场接受考验。
H | 总台央视记者 宋文瑾：我的身旁是一大片海上风电场。风电机的塔筒足有20多层楼高，是钢制的；坐落于海床上的导管架有近50米，也是钢制的。由于海上的风很大，而且它们常年泡在海水里，这就对于钢的性能提出了很大的要求。华北理工大学冶金学院教授 敬业集团特聘专家 张朋：风电钢主要讲究它的综合力学性能，主要包括强度、韧性，在风中来回摇摆不会产生脆断；还有耐腐蚀性，不会在海水里快速地发生腐蚀，能够进一步提升寿命。研究人员给记者算了一笔账，一台海上风电机要用钢数百吨，换上力学冶金技术生产的高性能钢，钢板可以做得更薄，合金用量也大幅减少。一台机组省下来的成本少则几万元，多则十几万。放眼全国已经建成的数百座海上风电场，这笔账加起来相当可观。而钢的考验不仅在海上，高原铁路上的钢还要面对另一番挑战。高原环境紫外线强、昼夜温差大、地壳运动活跃、养护维修不便，一系列因素都给钢提出了很高的要求。通过力学冶金技术，研究人员做出了一种高性能铁路钢，专门应对高原这种“千锤百炼”的服役环境。中国工程院院士 燕赵钢铁实验室教授 张福成：利用我们的技术制造的辙叉服役寿命比普通辙叉提高了三倍，是原来辙叉寿命的四倍。变废为宝 以技术书写未来工业绿色答卷更强的钢、更大的工程背后还藏着一道更难的题——如何能变得更绿色、更环保。钢铁与有色冶金每年产生数以亿吨计的工业固废，长期堆存难以消纳，是世界级的环保难题。能不能把这些“废料”重新变成资源？总台央视记者 宋文瑾：这些红彤彤的粉末别看颜色漂亮，它的处理可是世界级的难题。它的名字叫赤泥，是生产氧化铝的副产物，每生产一吨氧化铝就会产生1.5吨左右的赤泥。它具有很强的污染性、强碱性，而且有很多重金属元素，目前全球堆放了50亿吨赤泥，而中国堆放了超16亿吨。其实单论赤泥的成分，里面含有很多高价值的金属元素，比如炼钢必备的铁，但是拿磁铁却什么也吸不上来。这是因为里面各项金属元素成分非常难以分离。但实验室取得了新突破，通过一个设备就能让它变废为宝。
I | 燕赵钢铁实验室熔盐固态电解技术负责人 梁精龙：它主要是把工业固废赤泥通过通电打破里面的结构。赤泥里边最主要的成分是三价铁，可以通过电解的形式让它转化成四氧化三铁。它的磁性很强，之后可以通过磁选的形式把磁铁矿分出来，直接用到钢铁领域。
